Is it just me, or is everyone around me getting older? We’re witnessing substantial demographic changes, affecting the population as a whole, and the workplace in particular. Is your company prepared for these changes?
I could quote a bunch of statistics that show the rate of baby boomer retirement and the lower number of workers to take their place, with dire predictions of a labor shortage. Then I could quote some studies that show the effect will be minimized by boomers working longer, outsourcing, a rise in immigrant labor, and technological advances resulting in labor efficiencies (like robots I talked about last month).
So, depending on your industry, geography and other factors, your company may face a labor shortage, or you’ll be dealing with an older, more diverse workforce, or both. What plans have you made to effectively deal with these issues?
Think about what happened to Boeing in the mid-nineties. They let about 9,000 workers go by offering early retirement incentives. Giddy over the prospects of cutting labor costs, Boeing forgot about the Law Of Unintended Consequences. The “brain drain” resulting from all that experience leaving at once hurled Boeing production lines into chaos. In a move that shocked the aviation world, Boeing executives shut down production of their best selling aircraft, the 737 and 747 for an entire month, to sort out production difficulties. Bad move.
How will you cope with the majority of your experienced workforce retiring over the next several years? In Japan, Mitsubishi faced the challenge of a shrinking applicant pool to replace retiring workers. They developed a plan to rehire retired workers, many of who just wanted to keep busy, paying the “boomerang” retirees just 60% of what they were paid before leaving the company. Mitsubishi also has intensified efforts to relocate some production from Japan.
Speaking of relocating production, did you know some financial forecasters prognosticate a $3 Euro in just a couple of years? Can you imagine how attractive the U.S. would be to European manufacturers? We may see significant transfers of European production lines here to America, with shipping containers full of cars, appliances and other goods shipped from East Coast ports back to Europe. That’s another trend for another article, so back to the issues at hand.
“What issues?” you may be thinking to yourself. An older, more diverse workforce presents concerns. Think of all those diversity programs you’ve gone through. Did any of them talk about unity? Creating a spirit of teamwork and unity of effort will be the real challenge for managers as these demographic changes unfold. What is your plan for getting (and keeping) your 20-somethings and 70-somethings on the same page? A recent survey conducted by Atlantic Associates, a Boston-based staffing company, asked a sample of executives in Massachusetts which of these generation groups was the "most difficult to manage." Here's their result: millennials/Generation Y (ages 18-31): 53%; Generation X (ages 32-42): 17%; baby boomers (ages 43 - 61): 14%; not sure: 16%. Even though it makes me wonder if the results were skewed by the age of the executives responding to the survey, as a parent of two “millennials” I have to think it is difficult getting these disparate age groups to play nice in the workplace.
What about the physical challenges an older workforce might present? Nippon Paint in Singapore, with an average age of 48 among logistics department workers, began noticing an increased rate of human errors like wrong colors of paint delivered to customers and goods stored improperly in warehouses. To combat the problems, Nippon instituted a bar coding system to assist workers with eyesight limitations and worker-friendly materials handling systems to carry heavy loads of raw materials and finished product. The result? Higher productivity, fewer mistakes, happy workforce.
Increased numbers of immigrant workers present potential tribulation as well. The Migration Policy Institute used U.S. Census data to study Los Angeles’ immigrant work force and determined that one-third of immigrants have not graduated from high school and 60 percent do not speak English fluently. Sounds like quite the skills gap.
Imagine if that was your workforce. It might be in a few years time, so you better plan for ways to either attract the best workers available or come up with some workforce development initiatives to enhance the skills of your employees.
There is one common aspect to all of these demographic changes: you, the leader. Take charge, look forward, and prepare your company for the changing workplace.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Robots
Herbert Hoover was an optimist. When he ran for President in 1928, the slogan “A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage” was attributed to his campaign, although Hoover never actually said those words. I’m an optimist also, and I think by the year 2020 there will be a robot in every home. In this installment in our 2020 Vision series, let’s take a look an emerging technological trend, robotics.
The word robot was first coined in 1921 by the Czech playwright Karel Capek in the play Rossum's Universal Robots. He derived the word, robot, from the Czech word robota, which means "work." Pittsburgh could be considered as the epicenter of robotics. Everyone has heard of Carnegie Mellon University’s award-winning Robotics Institute, but the nation's most livable city also hosts Aethon, the manufacturer of TUG™, an automated courier system that delivers and tracks hospital goods and supplies.
Robots and other automated devices are nothing new. Many manufacturing processes utilize robotic technology and the automatic teller machine first went on line a quarter of a century ago. However, exponential advances in robotics technology indicate many service industry tasks could be automated, thus eliminating the need for humans to perform them. Based on the application of Moore’s Law, to the robotics industry, some make dire predictions of devastating levels of job losses based on humanoid robots replacing human workers. However, experts prognosticated ATMs would replace bank tellers and it hasn’t happened. Why? Most people enjoy human contact. In many industries, such as welding and metals fabrication automated systems don’t replace workers, they compensate for a labor shortage. In other applications, automated systems afford workers to focus on their primary tasks. Such is the case with Aetheon’s TUG™ which allows nurses to focus on patient care.
Countries such as South Korea and Japan, which suffer from some of the lowest birth rates in the world but have opted against large-scale immigration, are increasingly turning to robots to meet their manpower shortage. Unheralded advances in automation mean that robots are in production that will be able to babysit, take care of the elderly, and perform routine household tasks. Japanese robots have learned to run, lean over and pour tea. With an ageing, infirm population placing enormous pressure on the healthcare system, the government has laid down deadlines to ensure their entry in human environments.
By next year, robots will be expected to work as cleaners. By 2013, they will be able to make beds, and by 2016, to lift and carry the sick. A so-called “nursebot”, able to check patients to see if they have taken their medication and contact doctors to report significant changes in vital signs, will soon appear in Japanese hospitals. Also capable of taking blood-pressure readings, the nursebot will be designed to assist elderly people living alone. It will set off an alarm if their elderly ‘companion’ doesn’t move for a period of time. A children’s companion device on the market in Japan can identify faces. It knows if someone is missing from a group and can hold a conversation and dance with its owner. It can also send images to absent parents.
Back in the US, Vision Robotics based in San Diego, is working on a pair of robots that designed to pick fruit. In a few years, these machines could perform the tedious and labor-intensive task of fruit picking that currently employs thousands of migrant workers each season. This possibility puts an entirely different spin on the illegal immigration question our nation faces.
Some of the America’s 100,000 service sector jobs may be vulnerable to automation, particularly in financial services. In San Francisco, Quality Planning Corporation developed a system of tools that may largely eliminate auto insurance underwriters. "All the system needs to set a rate is simple data," said Quality Planning vice president Robert U'Ren. "Just from your address, the system knows the speed limit on your street, the amount of rain and snow in your hometown and the exact distance of your commute. Oh, it also finds nearby restaurants and bars. Why? Because research shows that bar traffic increases accidents."
Given that Quality Planning works with 15 of the nation's 20 largest insurers, the company's products could be very bad news for the nation's 95,000 underwriters.
I see this as all good news for entrepreneurs. Introducing robots in the service industry compares favorably to the time when personal computers entered the office space. While eliminating some jobs like secretaries and bookkeepers, the PC spawned an entire new industry employing many more people than those who may have been displaced. Businesses implementing advanced robotic technologies will become more productive and thus more competitive in the global marketplace.
I’m going home now. On the way I need to stop by an ATM. I’m going to buy gasoline using an automated pump, and then order a sandwich via a kiosk. When I get home I’m going to let my Roomba vacuum clean my floors while I watch the news about the latest airstrikes by unmanned aerial vehicles in Afghanistan.
The word robot was first coined in 1921 by the Czech playwright Karel Capek in the play Rossum's Universal Robots. He derived the word, robot, from the Czech word robota, which means "work." Pittsburgh could be considered as the epicenter of robotics. Everyone has heard of Carnegie Mellon University’s award-winning Robotics Institute, but the nation's most livable city also hosts Aethon, the manufacturer of TUG™, an automated courier system that delivers and tracks hospital goods and supplies.
Robots and other automated devices are nothing new. Many manufacturing processes utilize robotic technology and the automatic teller machine first went on line a quarter of a century ago. However, exponential advances in robotics technology indicate many service industry tasks could be automated, thus eliminating the need for humans to perform them. Based on the application of Moore’s Law, to the robotics industry, some make dire predictions of devastating levels of job losses based on humanoid robots replacing human workers. However, experts prognosticated ATMs would replace bank tellers and it hasn’t happened. Why? Most people enjoy human contact. In many industries, such as welding and metals fabrication automated systems don’t replace workers, they compensate for a labor shortage. In other applications, automated systems afford workers to focus on their primary tasks. Such is the case with Aetheon’s TUG™ which allows nurses to focus on patient care.
Countries such as South Korea and Japan, which suffer from some of the lowest birth rates in the world but have opted against large-scale immigration, are increasingly turning to robots to meet their manpower shortage. Unheralded advances in automation mean that robots are in production that will be able to babysit, take care of the elderly, and perform routine household tasks. Japanese robots have learned to run, lean over and pour tea. With an ageing, infirm population placing enormous pressure on the healthcare system, the government has laid down deadlines to ensure their entry in human environments.
By next year, robots will be expected to work as cleaners. By 2013, they will be able to make beds, and by 2016, to lift and carry the sick. A so-called “nursebot”, able to check patients to see if they have taken their medication and contact doctors to report significant changes in vital signs, will soon appear in Japanese hospitals. Also capable of taking blood-pressure readings, the nursebot will be designed to assist elderly people living alone. It will set off an alarm if their elderly ‘companion’ doesn’t move for a period of time. A children’s companion device on the market in Japan can identify faces. It knows if someone is missing from a group and can hold a conversation and dance with its owner. It can also send images to absent parents.
Back in the US, Vision Robotics based in San Diego, is working on a pair of robots that designed to pick fruit. In a few years, these machines could perform the tedious and labor-intensive task of fruit picking that currently employs thousands of migrant workers each season. This possibility puts an entirely different spin on the illegal immigration question our nation faces.
Some of the America’s 100,000 service sector jobs may be vulnerable to automation, particularly in financial services. In San Francisco, Quality Planning Corporation developed a system of tools that may largely eliminate auto insurance underwriters. "All the system needs to set a rate is simple data," said Quality Planning vice president Robert U'Ren. "Just from your address, the system knows the speed limit on your street, the amount of rain and snow in your hometown and the exact distance of your commute. Oh, it also finds nearby restaurants and bars. Why? Because research shows that bar traffic increases accidents."
Given that Quality Planning works with 15 of the nation's 20 largest insurers, the company's products could be very bad news for the nation's 95,000 underwriters.
I see this as all good news for entrepreneurs. Introducing robots in the service industry compares favorably to the time when personal computers entered the office space. While eliminating some jobs like secretaries and bookkeepers, the PC spawned an entire new industry employing many more people than those who may have been displaced. Businesses implementing advanced robotic technologies will become more productive and thus more competitive in the global marketplace.
I’m going home now. On the way I need to stop by an ATM. I’m going to buy gasoline using an automated pump, and then order a sandwich via a kiosk. When I get home I’m going to let my Roomba vacuum clean my floors while I watch the news about the latest airstrikes by unmanned aerial vehicles in Afghanistan.
Innovation and Opportunity
Webster’s Ninth New Collegiate Dictionary defines invention as, “something invented as a product of the imagination”. Imagination is often spurred by need, and necessity is the mother of invention. Carrying it a step further, one could say that invention that gets out into the world is innovation, defined by Webster as, “the introduction of something new”. And innovators often find new opportunities.
Beginning in the latter half of the nineteenth century and continuing through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, the world has seen profound changes – inventions and innovations – that have affected the way we live. Arguably the root of most of the inventions of the 19th century was oil. In his book, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, Daniel Yergin credits oil as “the world’s biggest and most pervasive business, the greatest of the great industries that arose in the last decades of the nineteenth century.”
Oil was discovered in 1859 by Colonel Edwin Drake in Titusville, Pennsylvania. Up until that time, the world was lit by whale oil. But by the mid-nineteenth century, the growing population and decimation of the whale population in the Atlantic necessitated whalers to go farther afield, which resulted in exorbitantly high prices for whale oil. A by-product of Drake’s discovery was kerosene. It was plentiful and cheap, the first innovative derivative of oil, and became the primary fuel for lamps. By the end of the nineteenth century, improved fractionation methods saw increasing uses and applications of oil by-products, which furthered the progress of some already existing industries – steel and railroads – and spawned the development of many new ones – electrical power, automobile, aircraft, travel, communications – to name only a few.
For the better part of 149 years, cheap oil has had much to do with the world’s techno-logical, social, and economic development. It has been the essential fuel of modern capitalism, and has allowed the many conveniences and luxuries that its people have enjoyed and taken for granted. Those of us in the United States have become “addicted” to oil. Now exceeding a population of 300 million, our society has grown up in the midst of abundance. The U.S. automobile fleet approaches 200 million, commercial and private aircraft number in the tens, if not hundreds of thousands, we heat our homes, office buildings and entire cities, and manufacture myriads of products, all of which rely on the use of oil to one degree or another.
There are those who say the world is running out of oil. Dr. M. King Hubbert, renown for his calculations of oil discovery and depletion, forecast that the world would begin to deplete its supplies sometime between 2005 and 2015. He coined the term “Peak Oil”, that point at which oil supplies would be outstripped by demand. If and when that becomes reality, other observers have predicted that economic and political chaos would most certainly follow.
If the world is running out of oil, as many naysayers claim, the need for substitute sources becomes increasingly apparent. Many alternative sources now exist, they are needed, and the opportunities are beginning to emerge to exploit them, which can lead to the development of new small businesses for enterprising entrepreneurs: residential rooftop windmills; solar roof panels; geothermal heat pumps from heat sinks just six feet under our feet; tidal power; river power; hydro; and methane. The possibilities aren’t endless, but there are possibilities – and opportunities.
Need – imagination – innovation – opportunity.
Stay tuned……..
Dave Sandberg
Business Counselor
Massey Center for Business Innovation and Development
At Robert Morris University
Beginning in the latter half of the nineteenth century and continuing through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, the world has seen profound changes – inventions and innovations – that have affected the way we live. Arguably the root of most of the inventions of the 19th century was oil. In his book, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, Daniel Yergin credits oil as “the world’s biggest and most pervasive business, the greatest of the great industries that arose in the last decades of the nineteenth century.”
Oil was discovered in 1859 by Colonel Edwin Drake in Titusville, Pennsylvania. Up until that time, the world was lit by whale oil. But by the mid-nineteenth century, the growing population and decimation of the whale population in the Atlantic necessitated whalers to go farther afield, which resulted in exorbitantly high prices for whale oil. A by-product of Drake’s discovery was kerosene. It was plentiful and cheap, the first innovative derivative of oil, and became the primary fuel for lamps. By the end of the nineteenth century, improved fractionation methods saw increasing uses and applications of oil by-products, which furthered the progress of some already existing industries – steel and railroads – and spawned the development of many new ones – electrical power, automobile, aircraft, travel, communications – to name only a few.
For the better part of 149 years, cheap oil has had much to do with the world’s techno-logical, social, and economic development. It has been the essential fuel of modern capitalism, and has allowed the many conveniences and luxuries that its people have enjoyed and taken for granted. Those of us in the United States have become “addicted” to oil. Now exceeding a population of 300 million, our society has grown up in the midst of abundance. The U.S. automobile fleet approaches 200 million, commercial and private aircraft number in the tens, if not hundreds of thousands, we heat our homes, office buildings and entire cities, and manufacture myriads of products, all of which rely on the use of oil to one degree or another.
There are those who say the world is running out of oil. Dr. M. King Hubbert, renown for his calculations of oil discovery and depletion, forecast that the world would begin to deplete its supplies sometime between 2005 and 2015. He coined the term “Peak Oil”, that point at which oil supplies would be outstripped by demand. If and when that becomes reality, other observers have predicted that economic and political chaos would most certainly follow.
If the world is running out of oil, as many naysayers claim, the need for substitute sources becomes increasingly apparent. Many alternative sources now exist, they are needed, and the opportunities are beginning to emerge to exploit them, which can lead to the development of new small businesses for enterprising entrepreneurs: residential rooftop windmills; solar roof panels; geothermal heat pumps from heat sinks just six feet under our feet; tidal power; river power; hydro; and methane. The possibilities aren’t endless, but there are possibilities – and opportunities.
Need – imagination – innovation – opportunity.
Stay tuned……..
Dave Sandberg
Business Counselor
Massey Center for Business Innovation and Development
At Robert Morris University
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