Robots

Herbert Hoover was an optimist. When he ran for President in 1928, the slogan “A chicken in every pot, a car in every garage” was attributed to his campaign, although Hoover never actually said those words. I’m an optimist also, and I think by the year 2020 there will be a robot in every home. In this installment in our 2020 Vision series, let’s take a look an emerging technological trend, robotics.

The word robot was first coined in 1921 by the Czech playwright Karel Capek in the play Rossum's Universal Robots. He derived the word, robot, from the Czech word robota, which means "work." Pittsburgh could be considered as the epicenter of robotics. Everyone has heard of Carnegie Mellon University’s award-winning Robotics Institute, but the nation's most livable city also hosts Aethon, the manufacturer of TUG™, an automated courier system that delivers and tracks hospital goods and supplies.

Robots and other automated devices are nothing new. Many manufacturing processes utilize robotic technology and the automatic teller machine first went on line a quarter of a century ago. However, exponential advances in robotics technology indicate many service industry tasks could be automated, thus eliminating the need for humans to perform them. Based on the application of Moore’s Law, to the robotics industry, some make dire predictions of devastating levels of job losses based on humanoid robots replacing human workers. However, experts prognosticated ATMs would replace bank tellers and it hasn’t happened. Why? Most people enjoy human contact. In many industries, such as welding and metals fabrication automated systems don’t replace workers, they compensate for a labor shortage. In other applications, automated systems afford workers to focus on their primary tasks. Such is the case with Aetheon’s TUG™ which allows nurses to focus on patient care.

Countries such as South Korea and Japan, which suffer from some of the lowest birth rates in the world but have opted against large-scale immigration, are increasingly turning to robots to meet their manpower shortage. Unheralded advances in automation mean that robots are in production that will be able to babysit, take care of the elderly, and perform routine household tasks. Japanese robots have learned to run, lean over and pour tea. With an ageing, infirm population placing enormous pressure on the healthcare system, the government has laid down deadlines to ensure their entry in human environments.

By next year, robots will be expected to work as cleaners. By 2013, they will be able to make beds, and by 2016, to lift and carry the sick. A so-called “nursebot”, able to check patients to see if they have taken their medication and contact doctors to report significant changes in vital signs, will soon appear in Japanese hospitals. Also capable of taking blood-pressure readings, the nursebot will be designed to assist elderly people living alone. It will set off an alarm if their elderly ‘companion’ doesn’t move for a period of time. A children’s companion device on the market in Japan can identify faces. It knows if someone is missing from a group and can hold a conversation and dance with its owner. It can also send images to absent parents.


Back in the US, Vision Robotics based in San Diego, is working on a pair of robots that designed to pick fruit. In a few years, these machines could perform the tedious and labor-intensive task of fruit picking that currently employs thousands of migrant workers each season. This possibility puts an entirely different spin on the illegal immigration question our nation faces.

Some of the America’s 100,000 service sector jobs may be vulnerable to automation, particularly in financial services. In San Francisco, Quality Planning Corporation developed a system of tools that may largely eliminate auto insurance underwriters. "All the system needs to set a rate is simple data," said Quality Planning vice president Robert U'Ren. "Just from your address, the system knows the speed limit on your street, the amount of rain and snow in your hometown and the exact distance of your commute. Oh, it also finds nearby restaurants and bars. Why? Because research shows that bar traffic increases accidents."
Given that Quality Planning works with 15 of the nation's 20 largest insurers, the company's products could be very bad news for the nation's 95,000 underwriters.

I see this as all good news for entrepreneurs. Introducing robots in the service industry compares favorably to the time when personal computers entered the office space. While eliminating some jobs like secretaries and bookkeepers, the PC spawned an entire new industry employing many more people than those who may have been displaced. Businesses implementing advanced robotic technologies will become more productive and thus more competitive in the global marketplace.
I’m going home now. On the way I need to stop by an ATM. I’m going to buy gasoline using an automated pump, and then order a sandwich via a kiosk. When I get home I’m going to let my Roomba vacuum clean my floors while I watch the news about the latest airstrikes by unmanned aerial vehicles in Afghanistan.